Market composition & Boost
Height = market before Boost; width = Boost. The dashed vertical line marks Boost = 1; hatching to its right shows additional GGR. Taxes plus DO retention are retained in Poland under the model; FO post-tax transfers and offshore GGR leave Poland.
P&L and capital flows
Capital flows below are signed: money leaving the country is negative. Δ / V0 uses initial total-market GGR, consistently across all rows. Δ % change uses the magnitude of the future-monopoly balance; positive means an improvement for signed P&L rows. A zero benchmark is shown as —.
Market comparison
Equations & interpretation
V0 = D0 / C0; VM = V0[C0AD + (1−C0)AO]; VR = VM × Boost. Growth multipliers apply once over the model horizon.
Society = signed offshore flows + signed licensed FO flows − incremental social costs. MF = gambling tax − structural outflow tax effect − Boost displacement. DO = domestic GGR retained after gambling tax.
MF structural fiscal effects use future-monopoly market size VM, so the Boost term does not overlap. Both adjustments use DCM × LostTaxes. Licensed foreign post-tax GGR is assumed transferred abroad. Society, MF and DO are separate perspectives and must not be added together. Additional public spending on gambling harms is not separately deducted from MF.
SF minimum = max(0, (CR − CM) / CR), rounded upward to a whole percentage point. All additional channelisation goes to licensed FO; existing domestic volume is retained by DO before proportional Boost. At CR = 0, the minimum is 0 because there is no licensed market. Every CR adjustment resets SF to that minimum; SF can then be increased manually. Changes to C0, AD or AO recalculate the floor and raise SF if necessary. Reset uses CR = 80%, C0 = 69%, Boost = 1, DCM = 1 SF = 20%, and LostTaxes = 49%.